Bad strategies
Using the official TFSA contribution limits, see which single-ETF strategy performed worst historically and which year-by-year hindsight choices would have minimised value. Results below are shown from tax year 2015/2016 onward.
Valuation date: 2026-11-03 · Total contributions to date: R421000.00
Bottom single-ETF outcomes
The worst performing TFSA ETFs if all contributions bought the same fund. Sorted by total current value (lowest first).
Year-by-year worst hindsight plan
Each year's contribution is invested in the ETF that would have grown to the lowest value by the valuation date. Earlier holdings are never sold.
| Tax year | ETF bought | Amount | Purchase date | Value now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015/2016 | ETFSAP | R30000.00 | 2015-03-02 | R46764.87 |
| 2016/2017 | ETFSAP | R30000.00 | 2016-03-01 | R47600.79 |
| 2017/2018 | STXPRO | R33000.00 | 2017-03-01 | R41003.92 |
| 2018/2019 | FNBWGB | R33000.00 | 2018-03-13 | R38406.05 |
| 2019/2020 | FNBWGB | R33000.00 | 2019-03-01 | R33333.55 |
| 2020/2021 | FNBWGB | R36000.00 | 2020-03-02 | R30855.56 |
| 2021/2022 | STXCHN | R36000.00 | 2021-03-01 | R24605.94 |
| 2022/2023 | ETFGGB | R36000.00 | 2022-03-01 | R33577.78 |
| 2023/2024 | SYGCN | R36000.00 | 2023-03-01 | R30503.77 |
| 2024/2025 | STXNDA | R36000.00 | 2024-03-01 | R29143.83 |
| 2025/2026 | STXCHN | R36000.00 | 2025-03-03 | R30184.62 |
| 2026/2027 | STXRES | R46000.00 | 2026-03-02 | R33369.92 |
| Total | R421000.00 | R419350.60 | ||
Worst hindsight allocation
Which ETFs the year-by-year worst hindsight strategy chose and how much each contributed to the final value.
Comparison
The year-by-year worst hindsight versus the worst single-ETF strategy and a 7% annualised benchmark.
These results are educational and historical. They are not a prediction of future returns. The model uses adjusted close as a total-return proxy and may not perfectly capture dividends, fees, spreads, platform costs, or real-world execution details. Past performance does not guarantee future results.